A confidential government paper warned that Ireland needed migration to sustain its workforce and public services even as calls for a crackdown on immigration grew.
The Department of the Taoiseach research said the country faced a “conundrum” of needing skilled labour even as it added to pressures on housing and infrastructure.
It said across Europe there had been “a change in the public discourse on migration” and that governments were struggling to deal with that.
The paper said a “social licence” was essential and that without widespread acceptance “there are likely to be more calls for curtailing immigration even if the overall economic imperative is strong.”
The research said Ireland’s ageing population meant there would be fewer people of working age available to support them.
By 2051, the number of workers per pensioner is expected to fall from 4.5 to 2.3.
“In short, workers will increasingly be concentrated in lower income countries with high birth rates whereas economic opportunities are largely concentrated in high income countries,” it explained.
However, it said Ireland’s current system for immigration was fragmented with employment permits, student visas, asylum applicants, family reunification, and undocumented individuals.
The paper said: “The question arises whether these distinctive migration categories amount to a coherent whole or whether they produce, in overall terms, a less-than-optimal outcome.”
Figures cited in the research said that there were 2.2 million Irish people employed, around 80 percent of the total workforce.
There were a further 565,000 non-Irish citizens working, of whom 308,000 were from the EU or UK and who had no need of a visa.
It detailed how sectors of the Irish economy – especially healthcare and construction – were “heavily reliant” on non-Irish citizens.
Over three-quarters of new permits were for people with third level education, with healthcare, IT, science and engineering, and social care being the top four categories.
It said the most common countries of origin were India, the Philippines, and Brazil.
The research also detailed how over 32,600 people were in the international protection accommodation system, with a further 2,500 on a waiting list.
“It should be noted that this cohort, despite their relatively small number in overall terms, tends to have a significant influence on the perception around migration and discussion in the media and public square,” it added.