The Department of Agriculture was worried about “panic buying” of fertiliser by Irish farmers with the country badly exposed to the fallout from the Middle East conflict.
A series of briefings said Morocco, Ireland’s main supplier of phosphate, relied heavily on goods coming through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
It said that while there was production in Europe, countries like Spain and France would be looking after their own domestic markets first.
A briefing note from March said: “Ireland, as an import-dependent island, is structurally vulnerable.”
It explained how more than a third of Ireland’s annual fertiliser requirement was yet to be secured as extreme uncertainty grew over availability and price.
The documents said that proposed carbon levies on high-carbon imports like fertiliser had “ironically” left the country less exposed than it might have been.
Because the industry expected price increases, they had already purchased “significant volumes of product.”
The briefing said: “It is understood that there may be sufficient fertiliser stock to last to mid-April.”
It said many farmers had followed the same logic and had forward-bought product, meaning a price “shock” might be less severe than expected.
One briefing note said: “Large co-ops such as [redacted] said that they have sufficient stock to meet existing orders but have limited scope for new orders.
“However, there will be a cohort of farmers that will face a price squeeze for their 2026 fertiliser needs.”
It explained how some major importers and blenders had already withdrawn their fertiliser sales lists due to uncertainty.
Industry representatives said they were finding it difficult to source product and that there was evidence of price increases.
The document added: “This will lead to more uncertainty in the Irish market with farmers having little visibility on price and no means to ‘shop around’.
“Any element of ‘panic’ buying may reduce estimates of fertiliser availability.”
A fresh briefing from later in March said some co-ops were also hedging their bets, fearful of paying high prices only for the war to end quickly.
It said they did not want to get left with “high-cost stock” and that created uncertainty over fertiliser supplies for the rest of 2026.
Another official note prepared ahead of an EU meeting explained just how vulnerable farmers were to a major hike in prices.
It said: “Fertiliser costs vary by production system, but by way of example, on Irish tillage farms, expenditure on fertiliser accounted for more than 25% of the average tillage farm’s direct costs of production.
“On livestock farms, expenditure accounts for between 12% and 15% of direct costs of production and 6% and 7% of total costs of production.”
The note said Ireland would support European Union efforts to ease the burden on farmers by reducing carbon levies if needed.
One briefing from late March said that because Ireland had little direct trade with the Middle East for agricultural inputs, disruption to international supply chains was the major risk.
It said there would be “heightened competition” for supplies with demand shifting to the “safer trade routes” already used here.
The briefing warned of a “severe scenario” with a general shock to global supply and demand.
“This would pose risks for farm cashflows, margins and yields, with downstream impacts for farm incomes, feed markets, livestock and crop production, biofuels, retail food prices and food security,” it added.