Demand for special education places is forecast to rise by almost one-third over the next fifteen years even as mainstream school enrolments fall.
The number of pupils entering first year of secondary school is expected to fall by around 17 percent between now and 2041.
A Department of Education demographic paper forecast first-year enrolments dropping from 72,800 in 2025/26 to just over 60,200 by 2040/41.
Junior infant numbers are also expected to fall, from almost 59,000 to around 55,400 over the same period.
The number of pupils in special primary classes and schools is forecast to rise, however, from around 25,100 in 2025/26 to nearly 33,400 over the next fifteen years.
The projections are part of a Department of Education analysis looking at demographic change and its implications for the school system in the run-up to 2050.
It predicted Ireland’s population would continue growing but with a smaller proportion of children and teenagers.
The paper said around 25 percent of the population was aged under 20 in 2025, but that this would fall to around 18 percent by the middle of the century.
The proportion of people aged 65 and over is also predicted to rise from around 16 percent to 26 percent during the same period.
The analysis said future population growth would be “highly dependent on migration.”
It said there had been “strong inward net migration” for the past ten years which was “projected to remain high in [the] short-term before falling long-term.”